Suren Sargsyan

Armenia at the Center of Geopolitical Competition: The TRIPP Factor

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Armenia continues to navigate the rather complex and challenging landscape of international relations. Developments are unfolding extremely rapidly, while tensions across the international arena remain at their highest levels. A great deal has happened concerning Armenia in just the past few days.

In Europe, Armenia’s prime minister announced that the country could officially apply for European Union membership within the next two years. On the very same day, it became known that Russian President Vladimir Putin was convening a summit of the leaders of the member states of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) in Moscow. Following the meeting, at which Armenia was represented at the level of deputy prime minister, Armenia was deprived of its voting rights but remained a member state.

It is well known that Armenia has issues with this organization. However, it has no intention of voluntarily withdrawing from the CSTO and is instead waiting for the organization to make an appropriate decision regarding Armenia.

Even before the meeting with Putin, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov had already outlined Russia’s position, which was precisely as I had described in one of my previous articles. According to Lavrov, the CSTO member states discussed Armenia’s failure to meet its financial obligations regarding membership contributions. He stated that Yerevan had not transferred funds to the organization’s budget since 2024. “We were forced to discuss Armenia’s failure to fulfill its obligations under the CSTO Charter with regard to annual contributions to the budget of our common organization,” the Russian foreign minister stated.

At the same time, Lavrov emphasized that even if a decision on this were adopted, Armenia would retain its right to collective security within the framework of the organization. The minister also stated that the CSTO member states had not received an official application from Armenia to withdraw from the organization. Russia has no intention of “expelling” Yerevan from the organization, Lavrov said.

Developments surrounding Iran are also unfolding rapidly. Iran has been quite active on the foreign policy front. As the country prepares for a possible military escalation, Iranian diplomacy has also become increasingly active. On the same day, Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan received a delegation led by Seyed Hamid Pourmohammadi, vice president of the Islamic Republic of Iran, while Vladimir Putin received Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council. Days later, the Armenian prime minister met with the Iranian president. I have no doubt that the main subject of their discussions was the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) project.

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As for the United States, just days ago, Armenia, the United States, and Azerbaijan issued a joint statement announcing the launch of trilateral technical planning groups to advance the TRIPP project. Immediately after the agreement was signed, the Armenian prime minister and the Azerbaijani president met in Dublin and discussed TRIPP. Notably, prior to this meeting, Armenia’s prime minister had also met with the president of Turkey and discussed TRIPP, a project that is of strategic interest to Turkey.

As we can see Armenia has found itself, against its will, at the center of major geopolitical realignments and competition, one of the main reasons for which is the TRIPP project. In this situation, the impression is that Armenia is unable to find ways to accommodate the desires and interests of all sides and establish some kind of mechanism that would satisfy everyone’s interests. Armenia is forced to take everyone’s interests into account because these are the interests of global players, and failing to accommodate them could have very serious consequences for Armenia.

This indicates that international pressure on Armenia will continue to come from all sides. Russia will continue to exert pressure on Armenia to prevent it from moving out of its orbit. The European Union will continue to pressure Armenia to pursue efforts to move away from Russian influence, while the US exerting pressure to ensure the implementation of the TRIPP project. Azerbaijan will put pressure on Armenia to make it meet all of Azerbaijan’s demands, including constitutional amendments. Iran, in turn, will exert pressure on Armenia to ensure that the TRIPP project is either not implemented at all or implemented in a different form.

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