Is Armenia Being Forced to Choose Between the West and Russia?

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In previous articles, I have already addressed the issue that Armenia has consistently sought to maintain multidirectional relations with both Russia and the West, without making a choice between them. This diplomatic approach worked for many years, and it succeeded not only because of Armenia’s diplomatic efforts, but also because of the simple fact that relations between Russia and the West had never been as tense and hostile as they are today.

Not only Armenia, but dozens of other countries were able to take advantage of this opportunity and sought to avoid antagonizing either the West or Russia, trying not to choose one global power over the other or to lose relations with either side. Of course, there were some exceptions. There were countries that made such a choice and began facing problems either in the form of Western sanctions or various types of pressure from Russia. Nevertheless, all the other countries were able to avoid making such a choice.

Today, however, the situation is fundamentally different from the one that existed in the post-Cold War world.

And now a very natural question arises: are either of the two opposing centers of power forcing Armenia, as well as a number of other countries in a similar position, to make a final choice in favor of one vector or the other?

In other words, is Russia forcing Armenia to make a definitive decision? And is the West also pressuring Armenia to make a final choice and ultimately sever its ties with the other side?

Making such a choice would be extremely difficult, risky, and problematic for Armenia. Regardless of which direction Armenia ultimately chooses to pursue, both a significant deterioration in relations with Russia and a major rupture in relations with Europe would present serious challenges.

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Therefore, it is critically important for Armenia to preserve a balanced foreign policy. If Armenia is indeed forced to make such a choice, the decision will be extremely difficult, given the wide range of factors that must be taken into account. The approaches of the West and Russia toward Armenia also have very different manifestations. While the West is trying to encourage Armenia through investments, financial flows, projects such as TRIPP, the peace agenda, financial assistance, and other instruments, Russia is following an entirely different path.

Russia is attempting to exert pressure on Armenia, including in the economic sphere. The fact that the Russian president did not congratulate Armenia’s prime minister and his political party on victory can also be viewed as a political gesture. Another political signal can be seen in the fact that the Armenian prime minister and the Russian president have still had no contact following the elections held in Armenia. This may lead to the conclusion that either Russia has information about the path chosen by Armenia, or it assumes that Armenia has already made its decision.

Of course, Armenia has the right to independently determine its foreign policy and set its foreign policy priorities, and Armenia should naturally exercise that right.

I believe that for Armenia it would be much more natural to maintain and deepen relations equally with both poles, which could bring economic benefits to the country. Nevertheless, if Armenia has to make a choice, that choice should be made based on its national interests, rather than as a result of pressure applied by global actors.

In other words, Armenia should try to withstand all forms of pressure, conduct pragmatic calculations, and make a clear political decision — a decision that should be final.

If Armenia decides to move toward the West, then it will naturally lead to a weakening of relations with Russia, including in the economic, political, and military spheres.

If Armenia has clear calculations that it will not face serious problems in transforming its economic structure and reorienting itself toward Europe, then, of course, this could be a good opportunity for Armenia to move closer to the European family.

Unlike many countries that have faced such challenges when making a choice between Russia and the West, Armenia does not share a common border with Russia. From a security perspective, this provides Armenia with certain advantages — something that cannot be said in the same way about Georgia and Ukraine. Therefore, at least this particular risk does not seem to exist in Armenia for the time being. However, it is extremely important to carefully consider that this is a competition, and ultimately one of the two competing sides will prevail. The other side will then take actions based on the outcome of this competition and its own interests as the losing side.

Armenia must also be fully prepared for such a scenario. In any case, if Armenia is presented with such a demand to make a choice, that decision could come within a relatively short timeframe, and Armenia must be prepared to make any choice that may be required. I would not be surprised by Armenia choosing any particular direction, because I understand that any choice will bring both new opportunities and new challenges.

In terms of opportunities, naturally, the West would provide much greater prospects, since Armenia has never been integrated with the West in any significant way unlike integration with Russia economically, militarily and strategically.

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