In recent weeks Russia appears to have become increasingly concerned about developments taking place around Armenia. While it is reasonable to assume that the Russian leadership has received assurances from the Armenian government that Armenia does not intend to join the European Union, Moscow seems to be growing skeptical of those assurances.
Russian officials understand very well that EU accession is not a unilateral process. It is a long-term undertaking that requires commitment from both Yerevan and Brussels. Nevertheless, Moscow is clearly irritated by what it perceives as Armenia’s search for opportunities to shift its geopolitical orientation.
Russia is also uneasy about the increased activity of both the European Union and the United States in the South Caucasus and particularly in Armenia. While the United States is pursuing its own state interests, Moscow believes that the EU is increasingly trying to draw Armenia into an anti-Russian political framework. Such a course does not serve either Armenia’s national interests or even the interests of its current government.
As paradoxical as it may sound, the interests of the Armenian state and those of the Armenian government are not always identical. For Armenia, abruptly severing ties with Russia and burning bridges could create significant security and economic risks. For the Armenian government, however, such a move could also undermine its political position both domestically and internationally. Therefore, it is unlikely that the authorities would take such a drastic step.
Armenia’s leadership appears to be attempting to balance the interests of both Europe and Russia, avoiding actions that would directly threaten either side’s vital interests. However, there are growing signs of concern in Moscow that Armenia is trying to sit on two chairs at once — a position Russia finds unacceptable and has increasingly stated openly.
In essence, Moscow is sending Yerevan a clear message: if Armenia chooses the path toward the European Union, Russia will begin to treat Armenia in much the same way it treats the EU itself — that is, as an adversary.
