Rubio’s Transit through Yerevan

Regarding TRIPP, one important aspect constantly remains outside our attention. TRIPP is an important element of American regional strategy, but it is not the only one. Its goal is to transport Central Asian energy resources to Europe through the South Caucasus and Turkey, bypassing China, Russia, and Iran. This concept has been openly stated. However, the key point is the following: China seeks, and has partly succeeded, in establishing control over Central Asia’s energy resources, and it needs export routes to Europe, something that could be realized through the Belt and Road Initiative and other routes.

The United States, in turn, seeks to create difficulties for China in this regard by limiting its export capabilities and using various tools in different countries, ranging from sanctions to its own regional projects. In other words, if China is taking control of energy recourses in Central Asia, then in a natural competitive response, the United States is asserting control over alternative transit corridors for its export to Europe.

It is evident that the main obstacle to exporting resources from Central Asia to Europe was the fact that, after reaching Azerbaijan via the Caspian Sea, these resources would reach Turkey through Iran, since the connection between Azerbaijan and Nakhichevan passed through Iranian territory, which did not align with Washington’s interests. With the existence of TRIPP, this corridor is secured through Armenia, thereby bypassing Iran. At the same time, it bypasses Russia and creates complications for Chinese exports by limiting the availability of alternative routes.

Regarding natural resources, it is well known that the United States and China are engaged in serious competition over mineral resources and especially critical minerals. In this area, Washington has two main objectives and strategic interests: reducing its own dependence on Chinese minerals while simultaneously establishing influence over the mining sectors of resource-rich countries. That is why the United States has signed similar agreements with Ukraine, Saudi Arabia, Congo, Australia, Kazakhstan, and dozens of other countries. Incidentally, one of the justifications for American interest in Greenland has been precisely its mineral wealth, something the Trump administration has spoken about openly on multiple occasions.

As far as the signing of a strategic relations document with Armenia, it is important to understand that the United States categorizes its key international relationships with different countries as follows: Alliances (South Korea, UK, Canada), Strategic Partnerships (Armenia, Vietnam, Kazakhstan), Comprehensive Strategic Partnerships (India), Comprehensive Partnerships (Indonesia, Singapore), and Major Non-NATO Allies (Israel, Australia) NATO member Allies and just friendly countries. In other words, it should be understood that Armenia has moved one step higher within these categories. However, there is no possibility of an alliance-level relationship, along with all the implications that would entail.

In other words, the agreements signed with Armenia serve Washington’s broader objective of advancing its own interests in the South Caucasus and the wider region, which is a natural course of action for any major power. At the same time, the United States is actively taking advantage of several key factors, including a weakened Russia, ongoing developments surrounding Iran, and the fact that China still lacks sufficient instruments of influence in the South Caucasus to effectively compete with the United States. Washington is using this window of opportunity quite effectively to promote its strategic interests, including through Armenia and other regional partners.