Armenian-grown strawberries, another crop being delayed by Russian border authorities (Marut Vanyan photo)

Russia Threatens Armenia with Gas Price Hike as US President Endorses Pashinyan

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YEREVAN — Against the backdrop of the ongoing political campaign of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and the intensified courting of the European Union in Armenia, Russian-Armenian relations are becoming increasingly tense.

Russia initially began to ban the transportation of flowers, brandy and fish from Armenia to its market, but these obstacles were created by Armenian drivers at the level of border guards, who justified it by saying that the flowers were withered or that the truck door was rusty, but, everyone understood the political context of all this. However, Russia is already officially threatening to use its most powerful “weapon” against Armenia — gas.

Russian Energy Minister Sergey Tsivilev has sent a letter to the Armenian Ministry of Territorial Administration and Infrastructure, warning that it could cut off the tax-free supply of gas, petroleum products and uncut diamonds, Kommersant reported.

Armenia’s Ministry of Territorial Administration and Infrastructure said it had not received any letters or notifications regarding the matter.

The same Russian media outlet published another article, saying that indeed, Armenian authorities know that the letter has indeed arrived. While the title of the article was very polite, one has to note that Russian President Vladimir Putin loves “to joke” like this.

Thus, distant Armenia and Russia are “negotiating” over a new gas price. While Russia threatens to take away the special price it charges Armenia for gas, Pashinyan stated during the campaign, “We are no longer that poor state and people, we are today able to create our own prosperity. Armenia will no longer be a country of thousands or millions, but a country of billions and trillions.”

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On the heels of that squabble, US President Donald Trump issued a statement on social media endorsing Pashinyan this week, something that is highly unusual. “Nikol has my COMPLETE and TOTAL Endorsement for Re-Election on June 7, 2026. Make (Armenia) Great Again — MAGA,” Trump posted on his Truth Social account.

He continued, “Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, of Armenia, a great friend and Leader, is making his Country strong, wealthy and very secure! Nikol completely shares my vision of PEACE and PROSPERITY for Armenia and the entire South Caucasus region. Our Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, just traveled to Armenia, where he advanced several important Deals for both our Countries. Soon, the United States and Armenia will break ground together on the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity, which will transform the South Caucasus and help our wonderful American Energy Companies gain access from Central Asia all the way to the United States.”

The agency in Vagharshapat offers postal transportation to Russia and back to Armenia (Marut Vanyan photo)

Certainly in the past month, Armenia has seen its share of the global spotlight, with the European Summit earlier in May and the visit of Secretary of State Marco Rubio last week, many in Armenia consider this flurry of activities as a pre-election campaign and want to understand how it would translate into money in their pockets.

In the south of Armenia, the locals are waiting for the train to pass through the abandoned Meghri railway and where it will go and in the north, truck drivers are waiting at the Lars checkpoint for the Russians to allow them to deliver their strawberries (which are already spoiling) to the Russian market.

It is obvious that Russia is no longer hiding its discontent, and has gone from hints about “sanctions” against Armenia to action. The Russian Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Supervision already has announced restrictions on Armenian vegetables and fruits.

“From May 30, 2026, the Russian Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Surveillance (Rosselkhoznadzor) will introduce temporary restrictions on the import of fresh tomatoes, cucumbers, peppers, green vegetables and strawberries originating and shipped from Armenia until an appropriate algorithm for ensuring the safety of shipped products is developed. The decision was made in response to increasing violations in the supply of Armenian fruit and vegetable products to Russia and to ensure phytosanitary safety. The current situation poses a threat to the phytosanitary status of the country’s territory. Furthermore, the competent Armenian agency has failed to take appropriate measures to address previously identified violations,” the Agency announced.

It is clear that gas is of greater importance to the Armenian economy than the export of fruits, vegetables, alcoholic beverages and Jermuk to Russia, although these are no less important.

“The Russian Foreign Ministry’s statement does not refer to an increase in gas prices, but to the cancellation of the agreement on this issue. If this were a political issue and Russia wanted to put pressure on Armenia, Russia could simply raise the price,” Step1.am editor-in-chief Naira Hayrumyan told the Armenian Mirror Spectator.

“On May 27, Nikol Pashinyan clearly explained that a decision had been made to abandon Russian gas in favor of Azerbaijani gas, which Armenia would receive in exchange for transit. This means that once the pipeline passes through the TRIPP, Armenia will receive gas in exchange for transit, although no payments have been finalized yet. Apparently, this was agreed upon with Russia. But if Armenia has decided to abandon Russian gas, why not choose Iranian gas, especially since such a pipeline already exists and is more convenient from a logistical standpoint? This is a truly complex issue, because in addition to the main pipeline from Russia to the Armenian border, Russia’s Gazprom owns Armenia’s entire internal network infrastructure. What will happen to it? How will it be taken from Russia and in exchange for what,” noted Hayrumyan.

Rusting train cars in Meghri (Marut Vanyan photo)

Under the 2013 agreement, Russia supplied Armenia with gas, fuel and diamonds without export duties and on preferential terms for domestic consumption.

“As for Rubio’s visit to Armenia, it is due to the elections, it is another matter how it is received in the Trump administration. However, it may have the opposite effect, taking into account the pro-Russian sentiments in Armenia and not only in political but also economic terms. Russia is already restricting the import of Armenian fruits and vegetables into its country, which is hurting Armenian businessmen, which can cause negative sentiment against Trump, especially since there have already been cases, as in the case of Orban, whom Vance supported, but he did not pass, Ivanishvili remains in Georgia as a Russian power. Everything is still unclear. Everything will depend on the outcome of the elections and, most importantly, how the vote count is conducted, since most violations occur during the counting process. Only then will it become clear which geopolitical power wields influence in Armenia,” concluded Hayrumyan.

 

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