Armenia’s Political Reality on the Eve of the 2026 Parliamentary Elections: Revolution, War, Polarization and the Search for the Future

The Prague Meeting and a New Phase of the Karabakh Question

One of the most debated political developments of recent years occurred on October 6, 2022, during a meeting in Prague. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev reaffirmed mutual recognition of each other’s territorial integrity based on the 1991 Alma-Ata Declaration.

Many in Armenia and across the diaspora interpreted this statement as a political acceptance of Nagorno-Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan’s internationally recognized territory.

Following this development, conditions in Nagorno-Karabakh continued to deteriorate. Beginning in December 2022, Azerbaijan blocked the Lachin Corridor, the only route connecting Artsakh to Armenia. The ten-month blockade created a severe humanitarian crisis marked by shortages of food, medicine and fuel.

In September 2023, following Azerbaijan’s military operation and the collapse of local Armenian authorities, nearly the entire Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh fled the region and relocated to Armenia.

These events also reignited debate regarding Russia’s role and the effectiveness of Russian peacekeeping forces. While some criticized Moscow for inaction, others argued that Russia’s political and legal position had fundamentally changed once Armenia formally recognized Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity.

New Geopolitical Directions

In recent years, Armenia’s foreign policy has become increasingly diversified. Amid growing tensions with Russia, Yerevan has sought to strengthen relations with Europe, the United States and other regional actors.

Political discussions increasingly focus on new economic and transportation initiatives, including regional connectivity projects and various international agreements.

These developments are interpreted differently across Armenia’s political spectrum. Some view them as opportunities for economic growth and regional stability, while others express concern about emerging security dependencies and strategic risks.

Armenia’s Current Political Landscape

Today, Armenia’s political system remains deeply polarized.

The ruling Civil Contract party continues to emphasize democratic reforms, modernization of public administration and the pursuit of a long-term peace agreement with Azerbaijan. Its supporters argue that negotiations and a more flexible foreign policy are necessary to reduce the risk of renewed conflict.

The principal opposition forces, particularly the Armenia Alliance and the Republican Party, place greater emphasis on national security, military reconstruction and a more cautious foreign policy. They frequently accuse the government of making excessive concessions in matters affecting national security.

Alongside these major forces, smaller reform-oriented and pro-Western groups advocate strengthening democratic institutions, judicial independence and closer cooperation with Europe.

At the same time, new political and economic initiatives are emerging that seek to present themselves as systemic alternatives, focusing on economic development, investment and effective governance.

The Diaspora’s Role and a Complex Relationship

Relations between Armenia and its diaspora have become both more emotional and more complex in recent years.

The war, the displacement of Nagorno-Karabakh’s Armenian population and shifts in Armenia’s foreign policy have generated diverse — and at times contradictory — responses throughout diasporan communities. Some believe the diaspora should assume a more direct political role, while others maintain that key decisions regarding Armenia’s domestic affairs should primarily be made by Armenia’s citizens.

This debate remains unresolved and continues to be a sensitive subject, particularly in discussions concerning national strategy, security and identity.

On the Eve of Elections

The upcoming parliamentary elections will take place at a moment when Armenian society continues to search for a renewed vision of security, stability and national development.

Among the key issues likely to shape the electoral debate are national security and military reform, economic development and social welfare, the direction of foreign policy, the continuation of democratic reforms and the restoration of public trust in state institutions.

Armenia’s political future stands at a complex crossroads where the legacy of the 2018 revolution, the consequences of war and evolving geopolitical realities continue to shape the country’s path forward.

Conclusion

The political developments of recent years — from the 2018 Velvet Revolution to the 2020 war, the events in Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia’s evolving foreign policy orientation — have brought the country to a decisive and challenging moment in its history. Armenian society continues to search for a renewed vision of security, stability and the future.

The forthcoming elections represent more than a political contest. They are also a broader conversation about the direction Armenia should take in matters of governance, national security and international relations.

In this context, several fundamental questions deserve reflection. Did the 2018 revolution achieve its principal objectives? How did the 2020 war reshape Armenia’s political and strategic outlook? What continues to fuel the country’s deep political polarization? What role should the diaspora play in Armenia’s future? And can Armenia pursue a more independent foreign policy under current regional conditions?

Ultimately, what factor will prove decisive in the upcoming elections: security, economic performance, or public trust in government?

The answers to these questions may well determine Armenia’s political direction for years to come.

(The above editorial has been translated from the original Armenian published in Abaka weekly.)