Can Armenia Hold Fair Elections without Interference? Philippe Raffi Kalfayan Has Some Thoughts

He added that his second reason was Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s statement that “I will not allow the opposition to return to power.”

“I considered this a challenge to democracy. One cannot promote democracy abroad and declare at the same affirmatively that the opposition will not come to power. His words alerted me: the incumbent ruler was prepared to use any means necessary to achieve this goal,” he explained. “These elections are crucial for consolidating a fragile democracy. Yet they are tainted by regional and international geopolitical competition. The number of actors directly interfering in these elections is staggering — Turkey, Russia, Azerbaijan, the European Union, the USA. They are trying to steal these elections from the Armenian people.”

One of IODA’s stated goals is the monitoring of human rights in Armenia. He explained that by human rights, the organization is referring to the independence of the judicial system and its potential manipulation and thus possible disregard for the nation’s constitution.

“I anticipated very early (back in 2019) the gradual slide from a state governed by the rule of law to a state ruled by a single party. The Prime Minister’s stated objective is to perpetuate the current regime in which the parliamentary minority has no real existence: whether it opposes or proposes, the governing party adopts the laws it wishes to pass. Two amendments to the electoral law have been proposed and adopted within 24 hours by the ruling majority since the beginning of 2026. Parliamentary debate has been usurped. This is no longer a parliamentary democracy,” he noted.

Armenia’s constitution, he said, is being neglected by the government, Kalfayan said. He cited the “totally unprecedented” violation of the separation of church and state, specifically with regard to the increasingly harsh attacks on the Catholicos of All Armenians Karekin II as well as the arrest of opposition members.

He referred to the “politically motivated arrests and detentions of political opposition figures, including Strong Armenia political party leader Samvel Karapetyan, Archbishops Bagrat Galstanyan (head of the Tavush Movement), Mikayel Ajapahyan, Arshak Khachatryan and Bishop Mkrtich Proshyan, in some cases involving the excessive use of harsh and disproportionate police force and often involving prolonged and unnecessary pretrial detention; the summary dismissal of judges on apparently politically motivated grounds, and suggestions of political bias in the appointment of judges to hear cases involving political opponents; the excessive misuse of vague penal code provisions that criminalize speech offenses including allegations of “hooliganism,” a reminiscent soviet terminology, and “calling for the overthrow of the government,” to prosecute members of parliament, political opposition, and the media; and finally, the apparent weaponization of the judiciary and security forces by the government against political opponents.”

IODA has no authority to enforce its finding. The all-volunteer organization, he explained, hopes to bring its combined years of judicial expertise to shine light on the situation.

“Unlike most Armenian or international NGOs, we are not linked to any financially supported program. Our observations and reports are not influenced by sponsors or governments. Our only means of exerting influence is through professional work, producing and disseminating notes and reports, and conducting advocacy with international institutions (OSCE, European Union, Council of Europe), the Armenian government, and foreign governments, particularly European ones,” he explained.

The government of Prime Minister Pashinyan’s complaints about possible Russian interference in the upcoming election has received support from the EU. He has accused the Catholicos of All Armenians as well as opposition figure oligarch Samvel Karapetyan of being part of that interference.

He explained, “First, the ‘hybrid threat’ is a political concept that the Council of the European Union intentionally made ‘flexible’ in order to accommodate allegations of Russian hybrid threats. Consequently, a double standard is emerging in Armenian public discourse: when the authorities interact with Russian actors, this interaction is often presented as part of a broader policy of ‘foreign policy diversification.’ The Russian threat is readily exploited by the government and sham NGOs to obtain substantial financial aid and in-kind support to combat the alleged risks, but also to convince the public that Pashinyan is the only one opposing this threat. The entire opposition is intentionally labelled pro-Russian, even though the Prime minister himself maintains good relations with Russia.”

Kalfayan said the government is conducting mass wiretapping and has concluded agreements with META (Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp) so that the Central Election Commission could more easily track paid political promotions. In addition, he said, the European Union has provided a digital tool to certain Armenian state agencies to track online activity.

Added Kalfayan, “IODA reported that it is certainly possible that Russia could try to influence the election of a more favorable candidate, but there is currently no evidence of widespread Russian interference. Putin said that all the political parties, including the ‘pro-Russian’ ones must be given the chance to compete for the elections.”

“The most blatant example of orchestrated exaggeration is the rumor that circulated that 80,000 Armenian citizens living in Russia were offered financial assistance to travel to Armenia and vote on June 7. This information originated with the FIS (Foreign Intelligence Service), a new intelligence agency created with the help of Western agencies and headed by a young, inexperienced individual loyal to the Prime Minister. It was then disseminated by an NGO of dubious neutrality,” Kalfayan said.

When he and his colleagues looked into the case and approached government investigators about the numbers, the numbers were starkly different. “We were able to conclude that it involved fewer than twenty people,” he said.

The group is gaining traction slowly, he said. “Initially, the diaspora was hesitant and unresponsive, wondering who we were and why we were interested in the issue. Since our first mission and the press release that concluded it, there has been definitely interest both in Armenia and within the diaspora. Media coverage is still too limited. We have a very small team and lack the resources to hire PR specialists.”

One of the more unusual aspects of this election is that the main opposition candidate, Samvel Karapetyan, does not meet the requirements of a candidate, namely because he has not lived in Armenia for the previous for years and holds Russian citizenship as well as Armenian.

“Karapetyan knows he is not eligible and recognizes it but says clearly that he will amend the constitution if his party is designated to form a government. The Prime minister, as explained before, does not respect the Constitution either on other points. Further, he claims to make adopt a new Constitution after the elections, but nobody has seen the draft. This lack of transparency is intentional since he knows that a majority of the population is not keen on changing it,” Kalfayan said.

For now, some state officials have accepted an invitation to meet with members of IODA, however, the Ministry of Justice and Ministry of Internal Affairs and the Constitutional Court, as well as and the Civil Contract ruling party faction at the Parliament declined repeated requests to meet.

He noted, “During the March 7-12 mission, IODA board members met a wide spectrum of non-governmental organizations, think tanks and representative of foreign foundations. IODA had constructive meetings with state bodies (Supreme Judicial Council, Central Electoral Commission, Investigative Committee, Anti-corruption Committee and Ombudsman’s Office of the Republic of Armenia). A meeting was also held with Karekin II, Catholicos of All Armenians.”

They also met with political factions represented in the Parliament and extra-parliamentary political forces competing for the elections, as well as a meeting with members of Council of Europe delegation in Armenia.

When asked how he would rank the state of democracy in Armenia compared to its neighbors in the Caucasus, he replied that Europe is introducing a false equivalence in the situation and it may itself have lost its moral compass. “This question points to the argument used by Europeans to justify their position. Armenia is better rated for democracy than its neighbors, then we must support it irrespective of the democratic deficiencies. Does Europe have legitimacy to talk about principles of democracy and international law? Freedom of expression and of opinion are threatened in many of their own countries. Further, they watched passively and complicitly the genocide committed against the Palestinians of Gaza to the extent that they even refused recently to suspend the association agreement between EU and Israel. They did not act against the unlawful aggression of Iran by the US and Israel. They also blindly support Ilham Aliyev [Azerbaijan’s leader] and Recep Tayyip Erdogan [Turkey’s leader] while those are clearly dictators. In general, the West is now closing eyes on democracy preferring instead the conclusion of economic deals protecting their interests with autocracies,” he added.

The prime minister had imposed a travel ban on the Catholicos, but about a month later, the courts struck it down. Asked if this decision gave him hope, he answered, “This is just a temporary measure due to international pressure. If the ruling party gets free hands after the election, they will take even tougher measures to remove the Catholicos. The Prime minister has clearly announced it.”

Kalfayan said the representatives of IODA have not yet met with organization representing Armenians displaced from Karabakh (Artsakh). “Meanwhile, some statistics exist: 34,576 people forcibly displaced from Nagorno-Karabakh have received Armenia’s citizenship, as reported by the Minister of Internal Affairs on March 20, 2026. What is interesting to note is the acceleration of requests for citizenship: 5,000 in the first two months and a half of 2026 compared to 4,000 over the first half of 2025. To the best of my knowledge, those new citizens have a right to vote. The question is whether their citizenship confers an automatic record into the electoral lists.”

He added, “Xenophobia and discrimination seem to be a persistent pattern fostered by statements at the highest level of the government.”

He concluded, “The Armenian population yearns to be part of Europe, but why is Europe interfering so blatantly in the elections, to the point of risking depriving citizens of a free and democratic choice? By encouraging Pashinyan to censor the main political opposition forces supposedly pro-Russian, Europe risks sacrificing the fragile democracy and creating even further internal chaos where Armenia needs national cohesion more than ever to face external threats.”