Russia is worried that the US-Israeli air campaign against Iran will result in significant disruption to the North-South trade network, a key conduit used by the Kremlin to keep its war effort in Ukraine going.
Moscow has pumped a considerable sum into developing the North-South corridor; Iran serves as a critical node in the multimodal network, connecting Russia to India and other points. Since the Kremlin launched its unprovoked attack on Ukraine in 2022, the route has helped Russia circumvent sanctions, enabling the import of civilian goods and dual-use technology.
Just days before the US-Israeli assault began on February 28, Russia and Iran agreed to start work on modernizing an Iranian rail route that would enable the significant expansion of trade volume between Russia, Iran and the outside world.
Those plans are now out the window, and the viability of existing North-South infrastructure is increasingly doubtful.
“We can already say that the North-South corridor isn’t working,” Semyon Bagdasarov, a political scientist, stated in the Russian parliament’s official newspaper.
Beyond North-South route disruption, Bagdasarov said Russia’s challenges in maintaining current war-fighting capabilities are compounded by the outbreak of full-scale war between Pakistan and Afghanistan. That conflict, he said, “calls into question the functioning of important logistics routes [… that run through Central Asia].”
