At Stake Is Trump’s Desire to Cement Peace in the South Caucasus, and the Commitment They Made to Protect Christian Communities
On September 19, 2023, Azerbaijani dictator Ilham Aliyev ordered his forces to ethnically cleanse the remaining indigenous Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh despite promises just days earlier not to do so. More than 200 Armenians died as Azeri troops drove 120,000 ethnic Armenians off their land, razed graves, and vandalized or destroyed churches and monasteries.
Aliyev was upset not only about the dispute over sovereignty — Nagorno-Karabakh had declared its independence in September 1991 in accordance with the Soviet-era constitution, a decision confirmed overwhelmingly in a referendum two months later — but also because the Republic of Artsakh’s democracy put it to shame. While Freedom House ranks Azerbaijan as among the world’s most consolidated dictatorships, on par with the military junta in Myanmar and less free than Cuba, China, or Russia, it ranked Artsakh prior to the conquest as “partly free,” roughly on par with Ukraine or Tanzania.
Artsakh was the first of three autonomous entities or unrecognized states — the Kurdish autonomous administration in North and East Syria (“Rojava”) and Somaliland being the other two — characterized by democracy, tolerance, and general fiscal transparency under assault by autocratic, extremist, and corrupt entities that claimed sovereignty over them. For all that European leaders and many in the State Department talk about democracy, the failure of the United States to support Artsakh, Rojava, and Somaliland shows such rhetoric to be empty.
Aliyev’s tenure over Azerbaijan has been an abject failure. While Azerbaijan, on paper, should be almost as wealthy as Gulf oil sheikhdoms, Aliyev’s corruption has left the country impoverished, with a per capita income below hydrocarbon-poor Armenia and Georgia. There is hardly an advocate for Aliyev and Azerbaijan in the think tank or media communities, meanwhile, who does not somehow suckle on the teat of Azerbaijan’s caviar diplomacy, its dog-and-pony show junkets, inflated honoraria, and sidebar commercial dealings.
Azerbaijan is sensitive enough about democracy in Armenia, but to have democracy on territory it calls its own was too great a threat to Aliyev. Hence, after his troops stormed Artsakh, Aliyev arrested its elected leaders on various charges, including crimes against peace and humanity, war crimes, preparation and conduct of an aggressive war, genocide, violations of the laws and customs of war, terrorism, and the violent seizure of power.
