As a result of the 44-day war, Russia’s role in the region has significantly diminished. After Armenia lost Artsakh, Russia lost almost all levers of influence over both Armenia and Azerbaijan. Naturally, this was significant for Azerbaijan, and it freed its hands like never before, as Moscow no longer had instruments of pressure over it. Taking advantage of this opportunity, Azerbaijan began cooperating more closely with Turkey and sought to exert a more active influence in the South Caucasus, disregarding Russia’s vital interests. This allowed Azerbaijan to present itself more actively as a regional power, a strong player, and a state conducting an independent foreign policy.
Bilateral relations between Baku and Moscow reached a nadir, experiencing a substantial negative intensification following the downing of an Azerbaijani civilian aircraft. In this incident, Russian air defense forces mistakenly targeted an Azerbaijani civilian aircraft, resulting in a catastrophic outcome.
Azerbaijan reacted in an extremely aggressive manner, directly blaming Russia without waiting for the official investigation to end. Moreover, Azerbaijan blamed Moscow stating that they deliberately did not allow the plane to land at a Russian airport — forcing it to return to its departure point — in the hope that it would be destroyed over the sea and that the evidence proving the plane had been bombed would be erased. Unwilling to ease tensions in any way, Azerbaijan, despite multiple apologies from Russia, refused to make concessions. Eventually, the situation reached a point where high-level contacts between the two sides simply ceased.
Throughout this period, Russia acted very cautiously, trying not to further escalate the situation. Following Russian political statements, it was evident that efforts at the highest levels aimed at avoiding provoking the situation. Simultaneously, Russia sought to exert pressure on Azerbaijani businessmen operating in Russia, demonstrating that these tensions could adversely impact Azerbaijani business interests within the Russian market. Monitoring Russian media made it clear that the Russian leadership endeavored to prevent any scenario that could exacerbate tensions between the two nations. It appeared that Russia adopted a “wait-and-see” approach, awaiting a slight stabilization of the situation.
