By David L. Phillips
The government of Azerbaijan heralds a peace agreement normalizing relations with Armenia. But the deal is so one-sided it won’t create conditions for sustainable peace. By enshrining victor’s justice, the deal sows the seeds for resentment and future hostilities between the two Caucasus countries who have fought two bloody wars since 1992 and remain at odds over a number of unresolved issues.
Azerbaijan seized Nagorno-Karabakh, called “Artsakh” by Armenians, in a lightning military operation in September 2023. Up to 120,000 Armenians fled to Armenia abandoning their properties and churches to Azerbaijan’s armed forces. Displaced and demoralized, refugees from Artsakh have been resettled in deplorable conditions.
The government of Armenia had no choice but to acquiesce to Azerbaijan’s demands. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan had a gun to his head in negotiations with Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliev.
The agreement eliminates the Minsk Group of the Organization for Security Cooperation in Europe which spent decades trying to mediate between the Caucasus countries. They fought to draw in the 1990s. However, Azerbaijan spent its oil wealth on missiles and other sophisticated weapons giving it a decided advantage. Turkey’s material and logistical assistance also tilted the battlefield.
The agreement disallows armed forces from third countries on the border. The European Union Monitoring Mission played a critical role preventing the escalation of conflict until 2023 when Azerbaijani forces invaded. The ban on foreign forces covers Russian border guards who policed parts of Armenia’s frontiers.
