Armenia, Greece and Cyprus Triangle May be in the Offing

Along with the US, other NATO members are realigning with Greece. One country notable in changing its tone is Germany, which historically has had an affinity for the Turks since World War I (and hence its complicity in the Armenian Genocide). That change seemed to come about when Ankara threatened the sovereignty of several Greek islands in the Aegean Sea. At a recent press conference in Berlin, a spokesperson for the government stated that Chancellor Olaf Scholz “is of the opinion that, given the current situation, it is necessary for all NATO allies to stand together and refrain from provocations between themselves.” Invading Greek airspace and flying over Greek islands is not OK, adding, “we cannot accept the questioning of the sovereignty of member-states of the European Union.”

The change in the German stance came after the Greek premier met with the Scholz followed by a strong and clear statement from French President Emmanuel Macron in defense of Greece’s sovereignty in the face of Turkish threats.

Turkey has been violating Greek air space regularly and recently it has conducted mock raids on those islands in military exercises with Azerbaijani forces. Most probably, the latter is repaying its debt to Turkey, which helped Baku win the 44-Day War against Armenia.

Turkey’s Foreign Minister Mevlut Çavusoglu also has threatened Greece a few times, asking Athens to demilitarize the Aegean islands, or face Turkish occupation (“challenge their sovereignty”). In his turn, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has scolded the Greek government, threatening them in his own unique style: “You keep putting on shows for us with your planes. What are you doing? Pull yourself together. Do you not learn lessons from history?”

This last threat was perhaps a reference to the Ataturk period, when Greek Prime Minister Eleftherios Venizelos’ forces had occupied Smyrna and President Ataturk, supported by Russia’s Vladimir Lenin with arms, money and supplies, pushed the Greek forces to the sea as he expelled the Armenians from Cilicia. But what brought Mr. Erdogan’s anger to a boil was Greek Prime Minister Mitsotakis’ successful trip to Washington in May, where he sealed a deal for F-35 fighter jets, while lobbying against including Turkey in the F-16 fighter jet program during his speech at the joint session of the US Congress.

Turkey has been trying to mend fences with Saudi Arabia and Israel. Erdogan’s trip to Riyadh did not yield any major results other than warm accolades from Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman. The latter’s return trip to Ankara was initially greeted with jubilation, only for the Turkish government to find out later that the crown prince had included in the same trip visits to Greece and Cyprus as well, to balance his policy.

Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates had earlier stood by the quartet of Greece, Egypt, Cyprus and Israel, which had isolated Turkey in the energy rivalry in the Eastern Mediterranean.

There are also some reports that the US may move its air base from Incirlik to Greece — its ace for pushing for its own agenda in the US. Mr. Erdogan had been complaining about the 12 military bases on the Aegean islands.

Greece has recovered its economy and military might and has responded to Turkish threats, saying that “Ankara will pay a steep price in any military adventure.”

Mr. Erdogan’s run of bad decisions and foreign policy snubs could not come at a worse time; his country’s economy is sagging and Turkey is further isolated while Erdogan has been strategizing to win the 2023 election, celebrate the centennial of the republic and anoint himself as the second Suleyman the Magnificent or Ataturk.

It looks like Armenia may make gains as a result of the Greek-Turkish standoff. For several years now, Armenia has had a military training program with Greece.

As Turkey threatens Greece with a new war, Athens has taken the courageous step of sending a military delegation to Armenia. Indeed, on June 2, Armenia’s Defense Minister Suren Papikyan received a Greek delegation headed by the Deputy National Defense Minister Nikolaos Hardalias. Papikyan presented an overview of the situation after the 44-Day War and emphasized the need to develop a partnership in the military-technical sphere. Mr. Hardalias noted that warm and friendly relations between the two countries oblige them to also meet the existing challenges.

Armenia has also similar relations with the government of Cyprus. Although these countries share the same history, this time around, Turkey has pushed them closer. Thus, Armenia will have an alternative source for developing its defense capabilities and Moscow should understand that an alternate choice in no way compromises its alliance obligations with Russia.

After all, Azerbaijan, under the same treaty obligations towards Moscow, has been building its arsenal through purchases from Belarus, Ukraine and in particular, from Israel, while offering no apologies to anyone.