Will Ukraine Crisis Help Turkey Dodge Western Arms Embargoes?

Serhat Guvenc, a professor of international relations at Istanbul’s Kadir Has University, believes Turkey stands a chance of seeing arms embargoes removed, even if partially. The Biden administration could persuade Congress on the F-16 package, but bans and sanctions are likely to continue unless Ankara meets US expectations on the S-400s, Guvenc told Al-Monitor.

As for the Bayraktar drones, their role in Ukraine has largely effaced the negative impact of their use in Nagorno-Karabakh, according to the academic. “It was the Polish and Ukrainian lobbies that prevented additional sanctions on Turkey over the Bayraktars in Congress,” he said, stressing that the climate has profoundly changed since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. “Thus, flexibility on the F-16 issue is possible,” Guvenc added.

Canada might review its stance as well. Turkey had sold drones to Ukraine before the invasion and “has since allegedly shipped (more) Bayraktars to Ukraine from the Turkish army’s own inventory,” Guvenc said. “So I don’t expect much Canadian criticism against the supplier of a system that Ukraine has praised so much. Canada has firmly backed Ukraine from the very outset and risks contradicting itself.”

The academic underscored also German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s landmark announcement of a special defense fund of 100 billion euros in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The Germans “will now view the armament of allies from the same perspective,” Guvenc said. The Ukrainian refugee wave to the EU is another important factor. The Germans “now need the Syrian migrants to stay in Turkey more than ever. This would lead them to review their reservations on the tanks,” he said. “And if Turkey does not deviate from the NATO line and acts in unison with NATO in the Black Sea region, the de facto embargo on parts for (Turkey’s) Reis-class submarine might be relaxed as well. Turkey is the only Black Sea country other than Russia that has submarine power,” he noted.

During his March 14 visit to Ankara, Scholz underlined the importance of collaboration between NATO members, including Turkey. Asked about Ankara’s refusal to join Western sanctions against Russia, he said Turkey deserved acknowledgement for supplying weapons to Ukraine and supporting the country’s territorial integrity. As for restrictions on arms exports to Turkey, he said that Germany has a strict policy on defense exports and “has to act within a legally defined framework.”

Ankara has put on a brave face against the embargoes, arguing they only reinforce its determination to further develop its defense industry. Yet engine development remains a major handicap of the local industry. Efforts to develop indigenous engines continue, and so does the quest for alternatives.

Turkey was unable to secure a German engine for the Altay, its first indigenous tank, and had to turn to South Korea’s Doosan and S&T Dynamics after long delays in the development program.

Baykar, the manufacturer of the Bayraktar drones, has sealed deals with Ukrainian manufacturers to procure engines for its Akinci drone and prospective unmanned combat aircraft known as MIUS. Similarly, Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI) plans to procure 14 engines from Ukraine’s Motor Sich by 2025 for its ATAK-2 heavy-class combat helicopter project. In November 2021, Turkey reached an agreement on joint engine production with Ukrainian companies Ivchenko-Progress and Motor Sich. Ukrainian assistance has been considered also for Turkey’s future fighter jet, the TF-X.

With the Russian siege extending to Kharkiv, the heart of Ukraine’s defense industry, Turkey’s partnership with Ukraine is clouded by uncertainty. “The invasion dealt a blow on Turkey’s plans to procure engines for its drones from Ukraine,” Guvenc said. “Yet the Ukrainians could now grow more open to know-how and technology-sharing. Producing the Ukrainian engines under license could resolve the engine issue.”

Meanwhile, ambitious progress has been reported in domestic engine development projects, though often accompanied by doubts and controversy. The PD170 turbodiesel engine, developed by Tusas Engine Industries (TEI), is planned to be used in Bakyar’s Akinci-C and Bayraktar TB3 series and TAI’s Anka and Aksungur drones. At least 60 PD170 engines have been already produced.

There are also plans to use a turboshaft engine developed by TEI and Kale Arge on the TF-X fighter, which is expected to make its first test flight in 2026. The T625 Gokbey light transport helicopter, scheduled for mass production in 2023, is fitted with TEI’s TS1400 turboshaft engine.

The Turkish defense industry’s exports reached $3.2 billion last year, up from $634 million in 2010, while local content in the industry reportedly rose to some 80 percent. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Turkey’s arms imports decreased 59 percent in the 2016-2020 period in comparison to the 2011-2015 period. An 81-percent drop in imports from the United States accounted for much of the decline.

(https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2022/03/will-ukraine-crisis-help-turkey-dodge-western-arms-embargoes#ixzz7OwqeYp48)