Is This the End of Karabakh as We Know It?

Let us be clear: what is happening in Ukraine is barbaric and heartbreaking and an act of war. What we are adding to that statement, however, is that the very same thing happened in Karabakh. Maternity hospitals were bombed and children died. Houses were bombed and entire villages were wiped out. We have been victimized by a false equivalence created by Azerbaijan and Turkey, which would lead anyone unfamiliar with the issue — 99 percent of the world — to put Karabakh in the same corner as Donbas and Luhansk. Armenia is being painted as a Russia-trained force trying to violate the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan rather than take back what has been Armenian land for millennia. Unfortunately, our enemies are strong and our allies toxic.

While the international community observed a deathly silence during the war in Karabakh, with the exception perhaps of former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s cynical remarks, “I hope Armenians can defend themselves,” this time around there was an uproar in the West when Azerbaijan made its moves. However, inexplicably, United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres issued a generic statement admonishing both parties to exercise restraint, while the major powers made pointed remarks to Azerbaijan. Thus, French Foreign Ministry released a statement saying, “France regrets armed incidents in the area of Parukh and Khramort and calls on all Azerbaijani units to return to the positions they held on the day of the declaration of ceasefire on November 9, 2020.”

On the other hand, during a briefing on March 25 by the US State Department Spokesperson Jalina Porter said, “The United States is deeply concerned about Azeri troop movement and other escalatory measures which are irresponsible and unnecessarily provocative.”

Although Armenia and Russia are supposed to be strategic allies, Moscow always kept parity between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Every time, the latter broke the ceasefire protocol. This time around, since the challenge is to the Russian peacekeeping forces, the Ministry of Defense has directed its criticism to Baku.

In a weekend statement, the ministry accused Azerbaijan of violating a Russian-brokered ceasefire that ended the war in 2020. It urged Azerbaijani forces to leave the peacekeepers’ “zone of responsibility.” The ministry assured on Sunday night that Azerbaijanis have taken their forces from Parukh. Karabakh Defense Forces have confirmed that the village is under the control of Russian peacekeepers but Azerbaijani soldiers continue to hold “fortified positions.”

Azerbaijan is defying Russia even as the latter has its hands full in Ukraine. Its Minister of Defense Zakir Hasanov has recently stated that, if necessary, “we can use most modern weapons against the Armenians,” while making another arrogant demand, asking the Armenian side to evacuate Karabakh of its “illegal military formations,” referring to the Karabakh defense forces. There is no such agreement in the November 9 ceasefire declaration. But there is another condition that Moscow and Baku have not honored: the ceasefire declaration calls for both armies to remain in the positions under their respective control on November 9. By contrast, Armenian forces were not defeated in the Kelbajar region but they were asked to evacuate, in a deal of collusion between Baku and Moscow. President Putin always tries to treat President Aliyev with kid gloves, because the latter shrewdly has refused to sign the mandate of the peacekeeping forces in Azerbaijan. Thus, Russia has its military footprint in Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan, under different conditions. Only its position in Azerbaijan is tenuous, because of the mandate issues.

Baku is blackmailing Moscow with a threat of opening a new front in the war in the Caucasus, knowing full well that the latter can ill afford a second front. The alternative for the war is pressure by Moscow on Armenia to accept the five point “peace plan” which represents a poison pill for Armenia.

Azerbaijan is in haste to achieve its goal, because Moscow and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) are bogged down in Ukraine and Armenia is in a weak position to resist any pressure. Therefore, it is an ideal situation for Azerbaijan to create irreversible facts on the ground. Armenia has wisely referred Azerbaijan’s five-point peace plan to the OSCE Minsk Group and announced that it is ready to sit down immediately to negotiate a peace treaty under the auspices of that body.

Before the beginning of negotiations with Turkey, Armenia already made down payments, refraining from using some valuable and advantageous bargaining chips. Here again Ararat Mirzoyan has announced that Karabakh is not a territorial issue. He said that it is a matter of “rights” rather than building a case around the principal of remedial cessation, a principle which was used by East Timor, South Sudan and Kosovo in attaining independence.

A storm is gathering over Armenia and Karabakh. Let us hope that this is not the end of Karabakh as we know it.