Armenia’s Place in the New Political Order of the Caucasus

Pashinyan, in his turn, was very careful not to overstep Putin’s instructions, but giving in to domestic pressure, decided to take a bold step and visit President Emmanuel Macron in Paris, and Charles Michel, president of the European Union in Brussels, on June 1-2, to find out how much substance there is in their offer to help Armenia to stand firm against Azerbaijani pressure.

This international pressure had also its ramifications on the domestic policies in Armenia, during the heat of pre-election campaign.

Twenty six groups have registered for parliamentary elections: 22 political parties and four alliances.

What is significant is that in view of Russian reluctance to meet its treaty obligations towards Armenia, anti-Russian political forces are being formed and are becoming more vocal.

Some of them are real political forces, unlike Tigran Khzmalyan, president of the European Party, which is a lightweight in Armenia’s political structures.

Prominent pro-Western groups are the Babajanyan-Shirinyan alliance, the Armenian Popular Axis, in which the heavy weights are Varoujan Avetisyan and Garegin Chukaszyan, as well as the Armenian Constructive Party led by Andreas Ghougasyan.

If anything, these voices will demonstrate that Armenia has alternatives to count on. But it is not realistic that these groups will receive much support from the electorate which always has been biased towards Russia. From experience, they also remember that Russia may not be very forgiving if Armenia really tries to move away from its sphere of influence, as happened with Georgia, which was amputated during the 2008 war with Russia.

In addition to international power play and domestic turmoil, Pashinyan has to fight his tug-of-war with Aliyev. The president of My Step Alliance, Lilit Makunts, insists that no negotiation will be held with Azerbaijan before the latter’s forces retreat from Armenian soil. Caretaker Deputy Prime Minister Mher Grigoryan, who is working with his Russian and Azerbaijani counterparts on the implementation of the November 9 declaration by restoring roads and communications, and Pashinyan himself, insist that there is no discussion of an Azerbaijani corridor cutting through Zangezur, while President Aliyev insists that in no way can Armenia walk away from its agreement to build the corridor through Zangezur, which will be controlled by Russian forces.

During a visit to Baku by Turkish Transport and Infrastructure Minister Adil Karaismayiloglu, President Aliyev gave a report on the work in progress and despite all denials from the Armenian side, he stated, “As you know, at the first stage after the war, Armenia expressed its protest on the issue. However, recently I have been informed that the Armenian side is already correctly analyzing the issues related to the inevitability of this corridor and there are good results.”

Pashinyan’s denial is understandable, because if Aliyev’s statement proves to be true, that may have some negative impact on election results when Pashinyan’s party still remains the favorite.

But when the dust settles, we may see that Aliyev’s statements turn out to be true, unfortunately.

In the wake of the devastating war and the turmoil raging in the region, it is insane to hold snap elections to prove that Pashinyan is still ahead in popularity. But the participation of so many parties and alliances has the potential of dividing the votes on the Pashinyan and Kocharyan camps, by not allowing any group to garner an overwhelming advantage, which may eventually lead towards a national unity government, which will be the silver living in all these catastrophic events.