The fall of Nagorno Karabakh is a defining moment in Armenian history. Almost a century ago, Turkey struck a sufficiently powerful blow to the Armenians to grieve for one hundred and five years and recover gradually.
It looks like the leadership of the current government of Turkey has decided that the time has come to cause another calamity for the Armenians to deal with for the next few decades.
Before we delve into self-flagellation we need to place the Karabakh war and the November 10, 2020 peace agreement into the perspective of regional developments and crosscurrents of major powers.
Since the beginning of the conflict over the fate of Karabakh (Artsakh) some three decades ago, the major world powers warned that there is no military solution to the problem, which had been relegated to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) to resolve. In the process of dealing with the issue, the co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group, tasked specifically with the problem, tried to keep the developments under control to make sure that no major power took advantage of the situation and derived dividends at the expense of the stakeholders in the problem.
But the war that was launched by Azerbaijan in September 2020 at the instigation and active participation of Turkey has resulted in the stationing of Russian peacekeepers on Azerbaijan’s territory, outside the control of the OSCE format.
Indeed, the peace agreement signed on November 10 reflects all the elements of Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s plans and more. Indeed, except for a brief period at the Key West negotiations in 2001, the southern tip of Armenia’s territory was not on the negotiation table.