Armenian Genocide Recognition Crosses a Threshold

During the Cold War, Turkey was considered an asset to the NATO forces and thanks to US largess, it developed its economy and army, and became the second largest power in the NATO structure. But in the aftermath of the Cold War, it has become a liability and drifted away from its benefactors to pursue its own rogue course, most of the times in opposition to the policies of its allies.

Turkey has become entangled in many regional adventures through unilateral decisions, without the consent and approval of the NATO Central Command, but always cognizant that it can invoke Article 5 of the NATO Charter. Indeed, the key section of the treaty’s Article 5 commits each member state to consider an armed aggression against one to be an attack against them all.

After testing US resolve, Turkey made the decision to invade Syria and massacre the Kurdish forces allied with the US. Despite President Donald Trump’s flip flop, even the Republican-controlled Senate lost patience with Ankara. But what seems to have broken the camel’s back was Foreign Minister Mevlut Çavusoglu’s threat that Turkey can evict the US from the air base in Incirlik. Washington realized that Turkey meant business and in collusion with Russia and Iran, was in the process of undermining the US presence in the Middle East, intending to dislodge the US entirely from the region.

Following the resolution, the same threat was repeated by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan himself. At this time, the two countries are on a collision course but if we remember how Erdogan went crawling to Moscow to apologize after shooting down a Russian military jet, we may predict another similar U-turn in Ankara. Perhaps it is to cultivate such an end that caused President Trump to state on Tuesday, December 17, that he does not back the resolution.

The successful conclusion of the recognition was through the correct lineup of many political stars. Although we cannot discount the valiant pursuit of the Armenian advocacy groups, and mainly the Armenian Assembly of America and the Armenian National Committee of America in Washington. But the role of these groups is confined to keeping alive awareness of the Genocide and to take advantage of historic opportunities like this one. Had it not been that endeavor, similar opportunities would come and bypass unnoticed.

After crossing a monumental milestone in Washington, due diligence requires that we find out the mood in Israel and by extension the mood among its lobbying groups in Washington, because the future momentum of these legislative actions may be influenced by Israeli policies.

On December 15, Ha’aretz newspaper in Israel wrote: “Turkish reaction failed to frighten members of Congress, an attitude that is not shared by Knesset members and the Israeli cabinet, who still can’t bring themselves to recognize the Armenian Genocide. Israel’s justification has traditionally been based on two grounds. One is concern that recognizing a holocaust of another people would undermine the singular nature of the Jewish Holocaust as a one-time historical event. The other is that it would bring about a total break between Israel and Turkey.”

Further down, the paper cites a more ominous course as it states: “Relations between Israel and Turkey haven’t really been rehabilitated but now Israel is being careful not to anger Turkey because of the concern over the future of the pipeline between Israeli oilfields and Europe.”

This means further hurdles down the road. We must understand that each nation will be engaged in political actions based on their own selfish interests, and not morality.

There is some conditional thaw among Jewish groups in the US and the Israeli lobby. Abe Foxman, the former head of the ADL, had turned himself a controversial figure in the debate of genocide recognition, by making reckless statements. Today, he seems to have mellowed out, stating that “there were several reasons for neutrality. Chief among them, however, was their not wanting to damage the Israeli-Turkish relationship or putting Turkish Jews at risk. … Things have changed. Turkey is no longer an ally of Israel.”

The Times of Israel has approached both Jewish Groups, the reluctant ones and the ones who have decided to support recognition publicly. However, referring to past Jewish conduct, the paper reveals some facts that were already obvious: “Shai Franklin, a senior fellow at the Institute of Religion and Policy, said that the Israeli government often directed US Jewish groups to stay out of the push for recognition.”

Today, there is a shift, hopefully a long-term one. Following the House Revolution, the Anti-Defamation League and Religious Center of Reform Judaism, the political arm of the Reform Jewish Movement, have issued statement supporting the passage of the resolution.

The Times, quoting again Shai Franklin who writes: “There is a division of labor in the American Jewish community. If the ADL has come out in support of recognition, a lot of groups may see them covering the wider community on this issue.”

Beyond rectifying historic justice, US recognition has also acknowledged Armenia’s current political status. In addition to recognition, the US has increased aid to Armenia. These moves have not gone unnoticed in Moscow, which thus far had taken Armenia for granted. A shift in Moscow’s treatment of Yerevan raises Armenia’s political significance in the region. The youthful government, which has garnered an absolute mandate and legitimacy through the last parliamentary elections, hopefully shies away from introverted domestic policies, to capitalize on this new enhanced opportunity that it enjoys through a historic accident.