Amulsar Gold Mine Decision: Blessing or Blunder?

“Pashinyan just placed a landmine under his feet, which may explode at any time,” wrote Garbis Pashayan, a political pundit.

In addition, one of his fellow My Step party allies in parliament, Sophia Hovsepyan, aired her public discontent. Others may follow her soon. This rift in the party has become a topic of lively discussions in the media. Pashinyan’s partisans interpret the public disagreements as democracy in action, while others believe the move may accelerate the founding of a Green party in a European style.

Many parties and political commentators have been expressing their views.

There is a trend veering towards solving the issue through a referendum. Indeed, the Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF, Dashnaktsutyun), taking Pashinyan at his word, has come up with the proposal to have a referendum. Pashinyan had indicated that any problem or crisis of national dimensions would be resolved by the people, right on Republic Square. That, of course, was a statement beyond populism, bordering on demagoguery.

The Prosperous Armenia Party has offered yet another alternative, recommending a plebiscite which will not have the force of law.

While Pashinyan’s supporters maintain that the people have given a full mandate to the prime minister through their landslide support (80 percent of the vote) to allow him to take  responsibility for crucial decisions, to hold a referendum on an issue with such serious consequences is to gamble with Armenia’s future.

In this case, the people are not armed with the scientific data to cast intelligent votes. We just need to remember that the last referendum held on the constitution was almost a farce.

To misdirect the public opinion against the people’s interest is not new. The danger has existed since the days of playwright Henrik Ibsen (1828-1906), who wrote “An Enemy of the People.” In the play, a moral man wants to expose the water pollution in his city while many slick hucksters want to rebrand the city as a spa. When he appeals to public opinion, it is he who is branded the enemy.

Technology and social media are challenges to democracy as we know it. Today, the technology of mass media is so advanced that it can shape public opinion. The results of a referendum may end up anywhere. A pot of gold is hanging over Armenia. People have been wondering whether the gold deposits in Amulsar will prove to be an economic blessing or ecological blunder.

Armenia has faced this dilemma before. During the demonstrations leading to Armenia’s independence, at the breakup of the Soviet Union. The fate of Metsamor Nuclear Power Plant was politicized and by public demand its operation was halted, adding more misery to the plight of the citizens who were already freezing in the dark. Later on, the power plant was certified as operational and continued to supply much-needed energy to the country. Although Metsamor is one of the oldest nuclear power plant models, it continues to operate because the resumption of its operation was supported with scientific data.

Granted, scientific fact-finding in the Amulsar case is not comparable to the case of the atomic power plant, but it remains the only plausible solution to the problem.

Political debates, patriotic speeches, referenda and plebiscites cannot guarantee the right answer.

Only the proper use of scientific data can help citizens reach the correct conclusion.