How Long Will the Self-Delusion Last?

While all these dramatics were taking place, President Alexander Lukashenko of Belarus publicly insulted and taunted Pashinyan on the Khachaturov arrest, blaming the new prime minister for losing his country the CSTO leadership, while President Putin maintained a meaningful silence.

Kazakhstan and Belarus, the so-called strategic allies of Armenia, have been promoting Azerbaijan’s membership in the EEU when Armenia is at war with that country. Azeri petrodollars have bought Lukashenko’s allegiance.

Pashinyan in late December paid a visit to Moscow to negotiate natural gas prices which stood at $150 per 1000 cubic feet. At the conclusion of the trip, gas prices went up to $165. Pashinyan had assured the public that it will continue paying the same price through an “internal arrangement.” People knowledgeable in the area fear that the government will tap Armenia’s strategic resources which leaves the country vulnerable should a war break out.

In the past, the Iranian government had indicated that it could provide natural gas at competitive prices to Armenia. Voices have been heard that the country has to approach Tehran. But it is highly questionable  whether the government in Iran will jeopardize its relations with Russia to save Armenia when Iran is in the same boat with Russia vis-à-vis US sanctions and both are strategic allies in Syria.

No matter what measures the Armenian side adopts, in all probability natural gas supplies by Russia may cost $300 by the end of year.

Energy is a powerful political tool in Moscow’s hand, which can (and is) used to enforce its policies.

Another sign of Armenia’s alienation from its strategic allies is the decision of the Kazakhstan government to cancel flights between Astana and Yerevan in an attempt to further isolate Armenia.

In his domestic policy, Pashinyan, true to his pre-revolution pledge, has been keeping the courts independent and resisting the temptation to give in to mob psychology which is out for blood. That maintains his government’s democratic credentials in the eyes of Western societies.

But the news media and social media, which carefully orchestrated his ascent to power, are replete with anti-Russian rhetoric. And the tenor of that rhetoric is hitting Moscow, before Pashinyan can clearly enunciate his government’s position toward Russia.

For example, one pundit, who writes under the pen name of Sarkis Arzruni, has stated the following in his analytical column: “No matter how much Nikol Pashinyan may insist that Armenia has not changed its foreign policy vector, it is obvious that the developments of the revolution will bring Armenia to a point where the Russian factor will become a policy issue. For Putin’s Russia, there are no allies; all countries are either enemies or vassals. In the aftermath of the Velvet Revolution Pashinyan’s team is trying to change the status of a vassal, for which it has been antagonized in Moscow.”

It is anyone’s guess why this writer is hiding behind a mask. There are other similar writers under assumed names. One thing is very obvious: the lexicon that these analysts are using is that of “grant eaters,” as they are called in Armenia. Their calculations seem to be that once Armenian-Russian relations are spoiled, Armenia will land in the NATO structure. They are not worried about the Turkish factor and its power in the NATO alliance.

At this time, Armenian-Russian relations are on a shaky footing. The goal of the Velvet Revolution was domestic reform and the defeat of the corrupt regime. Pashinyan repeatedly assured Armenians and the international community that Armenia will not change in its international relations. If that policy is subverted, we should expect problems on the horizon. Problems that Armenia can ill afford, let alone overcome.