Karabagh after the War

There are 200 nuclear warheads in Israel, which are not legally allowed yet are tolerated by the international community. The reasoning for supporting that kind of arsenal, under the US banner, is that the Jewish people have experienced the Holocaust and they are surrounded by powerful enemies. Never mind that some of those enemies (i.e., Iraq, Syria and Libya) have been pulverized by US muscle.

No matter how much we dream of a world free of nuclear weapons, Armenia, by the same token, is entitled to the same kind of deterrence. Recent news reports indicated that former prime minister of Armenia, and current member of parliament, Hrant Bagratian, and retired Armenian Maj. Gen. Arkady Ter-Tadevosyan, have threatened Azerbaijan with the use of nuclear weapons and dirty bombs.

As a doomsday weapon, Armenians have also threatened to blow up the Mingachevir Dam, which may create an ecological disaster with the destruction of many villages in Azerbaijan.

The logic of war is cruel. While destroying the Iraqi army, Gulf War Commander Gen. Norman Schwarzkopf said, “There is no better civilized way of killing people.”

In the May 31 issue of the Washington Post, Nina Caspersen draws some brutal conclusions about the recent Karabagh war: “The recent fighting appears to have shifted the front line in Azerbaijan’s favor. This is significant, but not because the reclaimed territory is strategic or sizable. The Azerbaijani gains dealt a blow to Armenian pride, but more importantly, they signaled that Nagorno Karabagh’s position is perhaps not as secure as the enclave’s leadership believed it to be or as strong as they have portrayed it to their public.”

Perhaps Samvel Babayan’s arrival in Nagorno Karabagh is an indirect endorsement of the Washington Post assessment. General Babayan headed the Karabagh army from 1993 to 1999 and he rightly got credit for many victories. He received a hero’s welcome in his native land, but his motives are not very clear. “I will do everything in my power to ensure that our security is properly protected,” he said, in his attempt to justify and explain his return from self-imposed exile in Russia.

He also called for an urgent modernization of the armed forces to neutralize the military threat from Azerbaijan.

War heroes rarely make wise statesmen. While in Karabagh, he acted as if he was above the law. He was convicted for his role in the assassination attempt on the former president of Karabagh, Arkady Ghoukassian. After serving four years of his sentence, he moved to Armenia and founded his political party, Dashink. While in Armenia he was associated with some unsavory characters. He is critical of the government’s handling of the recent war, but he has been denying his intention to lead once again Karabagh’s army or taking up a political role. If his intentions are to lift the morale of the public, he has achieved that successfully.

There is unease and confusion all around. Karabagh could use some moral support, which many war veterans have been bringing, besides General Babayan. No one can verify if General Babayan is abreast of modern developments in weaponry and war strategies to entrust him with a critical role.

In these demoralizing times, patriotic zeal is essential for the public. But the leadership in Karabagh needs a more sober assessment of the situation and more wisdom and expertise.

Hopefully Armenians in the homeland can provide both for Karabagh’s survival.