The Bomb that Did not Detonate

Mr. Obama has invited prominent journalist Thomas L. Friedman to the White House to explain to him the Obama doctrine. Mr. Friedman is a deft and suave salesman of Israeli policies. He is a smooth, authoritative and convincing columnist and under the pretense of criticizing the excesses of the Israeli political leadership, he can dexterously defend them and justify their policies.

According to Mr. Friedman’s article in the New York Times, Mr. Obama perceives the Iran deal within the context of his world vision. The US does not need to convince anyone that it is the strongest power on earth. Based on that premise, President Obama has relaxed relations with Burma, Cuba and now with Iran. We may also add his reluctance to jump into the Syrian melee or participating (directly) in the aggression against Libya. That would allow the parties under sanctions to cut deals with the US and abide by the terms, recognizing full well the consequences of the alternative.

The Obama doctrine has contributed to the relaxation of tensions in many regions, Russia remains one sore point where it seems, entrenched neocons and Cold War hawks have still their tight grip.

US and Iran pursue a very intricate policy with each other; while negotiating a major nuclear deal for a peaceful region, the US and Iran were fighting each other on the opposing sides in Syria, supporting opposing proxies in Yemen (Tehran bankrolling Houthi rebels, the US supporting Saudi airstrikes) and in Iraq war tacitly cooperative to defeat the ISIS in Tikrit.

Once the nuclear deal is sealed in June, Iran will emerge as a major power in the Middle East, overshadowing Saudi Arabia and its perennial rival, Turkey. That is why Ankara has been criticizing Tehran and has joined deposed Yemeni President Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi in its Yemeni campaign.

Armenia and Iran have been on friendly terms but they have not utilized the full potential of their cooperation because Iran was under sanctions and considered a pariah nation. Although Washington understood Armenia’s limited options in dealing with Iran, their cooperation remained suspect in the eyes of American leaders.

Should the present deal prove to be a workable solution, Iran may interact with regional and major powers in resolving many other intractable issues. One such issue may be Azerbaijan’s pretensions on Northern Iranian territory.

Armenia welcomed the framework agreement on Iran’s nuclear program. The deal “gives an opportunity to reach a comprehensive settlement,” said Armenia’s Foreign Minister Eduard Nalbandian. “The sanctions have inhibited our relations with Iran,” echoed Deputy Foreign Minister Shavarsh Kocharian.

According to government data, last year the volume of trade between the two countries was $291 million, which amounted to only 5 percent of Armenia’s total foreign trade.

The sanctions have put on hold the implementation of Armenian-Iranian energy projects, such as the $350-million construction of a major hydroelectric plant on the Arax River. The two countries also plan to build a high-voltage transmission line that will enable Armenia to export more electricity to Iran and import larger volumes of Iranian natural gas. Tourism also has a great potential, as Armenia being an open society will offer more attractive alternatives to Iranian travelers.

Above all, Iran’s political rehabilitation will tame Turkey’s pan-Turkic ambitions in the region and will act as a balancing bulwark in Caucasian politics.

Israel and the US are more worried about the threat of an Iranian nuclear bomb. But imagine what the fallout would be for Armenia and in the entire region if Mr. Netanyahu had the opportunity for his “pre-emptive strike” or trigger-happy John Bolton and his ilk were in power in Washington.

Fortunately the Iranian bomb was not manufactured and Mr. Bolton’s bomb did not detonate and therefore the region can enjoy the benefits of a peaceful prospect.