Shift in Azerbaijan May Create Winning Scenario for Armenia

Western media is inundated with harsh criticism of the Aliyev regime. Since Al Gore invited Al Jazeera to the US shores, the channel promotes US policy around the globe dressed in Middle Eastern garb. Posted on the Al Jazeera TV’s website is an article by Arzu Geybullayeva, a specialist in human rights, which states: “So long as President Ilham Aliyev keeps saying there are no political prisoners and no limitation on the freedom of speech in Azerbaijan — conjuring the illusion of a democratic country — little is going to change in this country.”

All criticism aside, where is Azerbaijan headed?

Mehdiyev’s article, echoing his master’s voice in Ankara, is stating that Azerbaijan has adopted an independent political course.

Turkey, while still keeping its membership in NATO, advocates the same policy. And since Turkey and Azerbaijan claim to be one nation with two governments, Aliyev is following the footsteps of his mentor, President Tayyip Recep Erdogan. Incidentally, the latter visited Baku on January 16, to extend his support to Aliyev, on the thorny issue of Karabagh. Alienated from the West, Aliyev needs that assurance more than ever.

With the West engaged in a colossal battle to deny Moscow a comeback as a world player, Turkey has found a political niche to built its own power base, independent from both camps. Azerbaijan is moving in lockstep with Ankara, in view of some other developments in the region:

• The dramatic fall in energy prices have deflated Aliyev’s dreams to build a country along the lines of the Emirate states.
• The confrontation between the West and Iran had boosted Baku’s political stake for Western powers and Israel, as a listening post and potential launching pad against Iran. Now, with the nuclear deal almost a reality, Azerbaijan no longer can serve as an asset for the West nor Israel.
• Turkey’s U-turn towards Russia, signing the energy deal has pushed Azerbaijan further towards the EEU with Russia.

Russia in its turn is fighting back to achieve its former status as a world power. China has expressed solidarity with Russia, seeing the writing on the wall that if Moscow fails, the West will not spare Beijing, which is already on its way to become a world player.

China not only has pledged to support Russia financially, but also has tacitly signaled that it can use its US assets as a weapon to destabilize the US economy.

In these momentous political changes, Baku is about to choose its policy, which may lead it within the orbit of Russian influence, where Armenia has been comfortably ensconced.

On the one hand, the US-Azeri divide may offer comfort for Armenia that the US will no longer force a pro-Azeri solution, especially when Section 907 of the Freedom Support Act is still in place.

On the other hand, it will be too close for comfort if Azerbaijan gives in to Moscow’s pressure and joins the Customs Union.

In these new developments, it is in Turkey’s interest to intensify tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan to shield itself from Armenian demands and to play as savior to Baku.

Thus, Moscow will become the final arbiter, having three choices to grapple with: 1. To continue the status quo to keep both sides expecting a solution in their favor; 2. To force Armenia to make concessions to buy Azerbaijan’s allegiance or 3. With a broader perspective engage in an economic development program to create its own markets and to force the parties to cooperate, in which case, blockades necessarily need to be lifted and normal course of life may resume.

The last option will mark a win-win outcome for all parties.