By Edmond Y. Azadian
When Armenia signed the Protocols last October with Turkey it was believed that the administration in Yerevan was taking a calculated risk. Armenia being a strategic ally of Russia was desperately trying to implement its foreign policy of complementarism, by cooperating with NATO structures, dispatching symbolic forces to Kosovo, Afghanistan and Iraq.
The idea of the Protocols was the centerpiece of Hillary Clinton’s foreign policy agenda and she had staked much on its success. Therefore, the Armenian leadership believed that they would be in the good graces of the US by giving a chance for the Protocols to succeed.
In addition to the desire to win over the US, Armenia’s calculated risk was in the belief that should the Protocols fail, the ball would be in Turkey’s court and the international community would blame Ankara for the failure. But it looks at this point that the calculation in that risk was not properly assessed, and that logic, justice, morality and fairness have no place in the international politics.
It is true that the powers that be have been equally pressuring both sides to ratify the protocols, but the impact at the receiving ends of the pressure is not the same. While such pressure may crush Armenia under its weight, because Armenia does not have too much room to maneuver, Turkey can withstand and survive the same amount of pressure because, it has a multi-dimensional foreign policy: It can play Israel vs. Arabs, the Islamic world vs. the European Union and the US vs. Russia. And that is where we are now. There is tremendous pressure on Armenia and the arguments, which ordinarily Turkey would have used against Armenia have been adopted or endorsed by the US, OSCE and the Council of Europe.
Armenians have certainly been lobbying for the passage of resolutions in the American and European legislatures.